Tropical Storm Milton Intensifies, Expected to Become Major Hurricane Before Florida Landfall

 The risk of high winds and storm surge is increasing in Southwest Florida as Milton is set to strengthen.

Tropical Storm Milton is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico as it approaches Florida in the coming days.

The storm has the potential to significantly impact the state's west coast, where many areas are still recovering from the storm surge caused by Hurricane Helene.

Maps, models and tracks

First Alert Hurricane Tracking is closely monitoring the storm, and as of 5 a.m. Sunday, Tropical Storm Milton has intensified with sustained winds of 50 mph, moving east at 5 mph.

The storm is currently located about 845 miles west-southwest of Tampa. Hurricane and storm surge watches are anticipated to be issued for parts of Florida later on Sunday.

Important Point One: Where is the Storm Going?

Milton is forecast to move toward Florida and get stronger in the coming days.

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center predicts Tropical Storm Milton will intensify into a Category 3 hurricane by Tuesday afternoon. It is expected to maintain Category 3 strength as it approaches landfall on Florida's west coast by Wednesday afternoon.

It's crucial not to focus solely on the center of the forecast cone. The cone shows the most likely path for the hurricane's center, but impacts can extend far beyond it.

If the storm tracks along the southern edge of the cone, stronger winds and higher storm surge could affect the area. On the other hand, if it follows the center or northern side of the cone, the wind threat would be lower, and the risk of storm surge would decrease in the community.

Forecast models are showing strong agreement in Milton’s path toward Florida, though it's still uncertain which part of the west coast will experience the brunt of the Category 3 winds.

This highlights why it's crucial to rely on the National Hurricane Center's forecast cone rather than solely comparing forecast models.

Important Point Two: What Impacts Will Occur Where I Live?

It’s still too early to provide precise details on the wind or storm surge impacts any specific community will face this evening. However, based on the last 24 hours of forecast trends, the potential for significant wind and storm surge impacts is very real.

Tropical weather watches for Florida are likely to be issued on Sunday. As more forecast data becomes available, we should gain a clearer understanding of the possible wind and surge levels in the days ahead.

Since there is still a risk of storm surge in our community even if the storm makes landfall to the north, residents living near bodies of water, including the Gulf, rivers, bays, harbors, and canals, should stay up-to-date with the latest information.

By late Sunday, we should have more clarity on the expected storm surge levels.

In advance of Milton’s winds or storm surge, a tropical air mass will move into South Florida on Sunday, increasing the likelihood of heavy rainfall through Monday. A Flood Watch is already in effect for the entire community through Thursday morning.

Excessive runoff could lead to flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying areas prone to flooding. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8+ inches are expected over the next seven days.

Important Point Three: When Should I Expect Impacts?

Since Milton is already in the Gulf of Mexico, there won’t be an extended waiting period for the storm to approach our state.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the earliest likely arrival of tropical-storm-force winds is 8 p.m. on Tuesday. This means that all outdoor storm preparations should be completed by Tuesday evening at the latest.